Shares of rare earth miners rallied Monday after Deutsche Bank upgraded MP Materials (NYSE: MP), the largest rare earth producer in the Western Hemisphere, to Buy from Hold.
The call comes after a volatile month for the sector and follows MP’s better-than-expected third-quarter earnings.
Deutsche Bank turns bullish on MP Materials
Deutsche Bank analyst Corinne Blanchard raised her rating on MP Materials to Buy from Hold and increased her price target to $71 a share, up from $68.
The new target implies a 21% upside from MP’s most recent closing price.
“We believe MP now represents a buying opportunity for investors wanting exposure to the thematic of critical minerals and rare earths over the medium to long term,” Blanchard wrote in a note to clients.
She highlighted MP’s position as the only fully integrated rare earth company in the West, underscoring its strategic backing from the US government.
Blanchard cited a “clear growth path ahead,” supported by the company’s government-backed price floor of $110 per kilogram, expansion in refining and magnet production, and growing focus on recycling initiatives.
Deutsche Bank’s valuation is based on 18 times the estimated 2028 EBITDA of $607 million, up from its prior forecast of $495 million, reflecting stronger long-term assumptions.
Following the upgrade, MP shares rose 6.04% to $62.14 on Monday.
The stock had already surged nearly 13% on Friday after the company reported quarterly results that beat earnings expectations.
Strong earnings follow period of sharp declines
MP Materials’ third-quarter report on Thursday evening provided some relief to investors after several weeks of steep losses.
The company reported an adjusted loss of $0.10 per share, narrower than analysts’ expectations for a $0.18 per-share loss.
However, its net loss widened due to halted sales to Chinese customers as part of a US government agreement.
Before earnings, MP stock had fallen in 13 of the previous 17 trading sessions, dropping sharply from above $100 in mid-October as China threatened to restrict rare earth exports.
Shares fell as trade tensions eased and fears of export restrictions diminished.
Despite the recent pullback, MP stock remains up 276% year-to-date.
Monday’s gains suggest growing optimism that the worst of the selloff may be over, with investors refocusing on long-term fundamentals and domestic supply chain development.
Other US rare earth players also saw modest rebounds.
Analysts remain positive on long-term rospects
Blanchard’s bullish call aligns with broader Wall Street optimism toward MP Materials.
According to LSEG data, of the 15 brokerages covering the stock, 11 rate it a “strong buy” or “buy,” while four recommend holding.
The median price target stands at $79.50, suggesting additional upside potential.
Data from FactSet shows that about 75% of analysts covering MP stock rate it Buy, compared to an average of 55% for S&P 500 companies.
FactSet also notes an average price target of $83, underscoring widespread confidence in MP’s growth trajectory.
Blanchard’s upgrade also comes after a July deal with the US Department of Defense, which included an equity investment, price floor, and guaranteed customer for rare earth magnets the company is building facilities to produce.
With China controlling about 85% of global rare earth processing capacity, MP’s role as a US-based producer gives it strategic importance.
As trade volatility subsides, analysts believe investors can now return their focus to fundamentals — evaluating production growth, refining capacity, and the long-term outlook for critical minerals essential to modern technologies.
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